Thanksgiving NFL slate preview: Packers vs. Lions, Cowboys vs. Chiefs, Bengals vs. Ravens

Written by: Miles Jordan,William Petersen •

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Packers vs. Lions

The NFL delivers a powerhouse Thanksgiving lineup this year, serving up three games loaded with playoff implications, star power, and classic rivalries. The day begins in Detroit, where the Lions and Packers renew one of football’s oldest feuds in a matchup that could reshape the NFC North race. In the afternoon, America’s Team hosts the defending AFC champions as the Cowboys and Chiefs square off in a Texas-sized showdown. And when the plates are cleared, the AFC North takes center stage under the primetime lights, with the surging Ravens looking to hold their division lead against a Bengals team rejuvenated by the return of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. From start to finish, it’s one of the most compelling Thanksgiving slates in years, and every game carries the weight of a season turning point.

Here is the Predictors’ guide to all three Thanksgiving day games.

Packers vs. Lions

The NFL’s Thanksgiving slate kicks off with a classic NFC North rivalry as the Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field. Green Bay enters riding a two-game winning streak, while Detroit is fresh off a dramatic overtime victory and looking to finally build some momentum with back-to-back wins. Add in the fact that Green Bay dominated the first meeting in Week 1, and the ingredients are all there for a high-energy holiday showdown.

Green Bay

Green Bay has rediscovered its rhythm after a shaky midseason stretch, putting together consecutive wins while tightening up on both sides of the ball. The defense, which crushed Detroit in the season opener, remains the defining force. Micah Parsons’ limited debut snaps made an immediate impact, and the supporting cast of Lukas Van Ness, Devonte Wyatt, and a healthier secondary has helped the Packers regain their early-season edge.

Offensively, the Packers hope to get back key playmakers. Josh Jacobs and Jayden Reed both logged limited practices early in the week, giving Green Bay a chance to field a more complete attack. With the Bears sitting at 8-3 and two head-to-head matchups still looming, Green Bay knows that wins over Detroit and Chicago will shape the division race. A victory here gives the Packers three straight and keeps them in striking distance of first place.

Detroit

Detroit's big overtime win last week moved them to 7-4, but the Lions know they had to escape more than dominate. Still, this team has shown all season that when its offense settles in, it can go blow-for-blow with anyone in the league. That firepower never materialized in Week 1, when Green Bay’s front overwhelmed Detroit’s offensive line and disrupted everything the Lions tried to run.

Injuries remain the Lions’ biggest hurdle. Center Graham Glasgow, safety Kerby Joseph, and several key defenders hit the week’s injury report, and Detroit remains without star tight end Sam LaPorta. The defense could get a boost if Marcus Davenport is cleared to return, but the unit as a whole must play cleaner against a Packers offense that is regaining confidence.

Still, this is a pride-driven matchup for Detroit. A win not only evens the season series but strengthens their path in the NFC North, where they hold the tiebreaker over Chicago and close the year with another shot at the Bears. The Lions are 12-9-1 all time vs. Green Bay on Thanksgiving, and they’ll need that holiday magic again.

Stats to know:

Packers:

- 13th in total offense / 14th in passing offense (222.5 ypg) / 15th in rushing offense (116.5 ypg)

- 4th in total defense / 5th in passing defense (182.3 ypg) / 6th in rushing defense (96.5 ypg)

- 23.9 points per game / 18.4 points allowed per game

- 350.4 ypg / 294.3 yards allowed per game

- 4-7 ATS / 3-1-1 SU on the road / 1-4 ATS on the road

- 3-3 ATS after a win

- 2-0 ATS in divisional games

- Packers are 16-20-2 all time on Thanksgiving

- Packers are 5-1 ATS as an underdog

- Packers are 9-12-1 vs Lions on Thanksgiving

- Matt LaFleur is 2-1 on Thanksgiving

- Matt laFleur is 26-14 ATS as an underdog

Lions:

- 4th in total offense / 8th in passing offense (238.6 ypg) / 3rd in rushing offense (139.8 ypg)

- 4th in total defense / 15th in passing defense (210.5 ypg) / 11th in rushing defense (101.7 ypg)

- 29.6 points per game / 22.1 points allowed per game

- 391.8 ypg / 330.8 yards allowed per game

- 6-5 ATS / 4-1 SU at home / 3-2 ATS at home

- 3-3 ATS after a win / 3-2 ATS as home favorite

- 1-2 ATS in divisional games

- Lions are 8-12 ATS in last 20 years, but 8-5 ATS since 2012

- Jared Goff is 1-3 SU in last four Thanksgiving games

- Dan Campbell is 1-3 on Thanksgiving

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Lions -2.5 / Total O/U 48.5 / Packers ML +120

Best Bets:

  1. Packers moneyline (+120)

- Even though the Packers offense has been inconsistent the past couple of weeks I am still riding with the Packers and Matt LaFleur as the numbers speak for themselves. The Lions playing on Thanksgiving is tradition but the Lions playing on Thanksgiving and losing is almost as constant as death and taxes. Around Thanksgiving every year is when the Packers really catch their stride and I think Jordan Love and the Packers offense will show up to Ford Field hungry to start the Thanksgiving Day slate. The Packers record ATS, especially as an underdog this season is remarkable but I am confident they will win this game outright. The Lions won on Thanksgiving last year but it is because they were playing the Chicago Bears. Don’t over think this game, the Packers have won two straight and are going to keep the NFC North race tight by extending their winning streak and keep the tradition alive of the Lions losing on Turkey Day.

  1. Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown (+105)

- Amon-Ra is one of the most explosive players in the NFL and the man always seems to show up for big games. The USC alum is coming off his best game of the season, 9 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown and is going to carry that moment into this massive Turkey Day game. Amon-Ra seems to nearly score in every big game and this game will not be any different. I wish there was a little more juice but that just shows you the odds makers and I are on the same wavelength. The Packers have a solid secondary but St. Brown always finds a way to make an impact and who knows he may just be the first touchdown scorer as well.

Injuries

Packers

The Packers have ruled out 4 players including WR Jayden Reed who is nearing a return from surgery for a fractured collarbone and a foot surgery and backup WR Savion Williams. While the majority of the Packers’ WR room made an appearance on the injury report this week, the only other receiver with a designation going into the Thanksgiving game is WR Matthew Golden. Thankfully RB Josh Jacobs will make a return after missing the game against Minnesota, although RB Emanuel Wilson put in a stellar performance in his absence. QB Jordan Love has been nursing a left shoulder (non throwing) injury but was a full participant in all practices. Defensively, linemen Lukas Van Ness and Karl Brooks have both been ruled out (foot and ankle respectively). Middle LB Quay Walker and CB Keisean Nixon are both questionable with neck injuries so look for the Lions to try and take advantage of possible backups in some key roles.

 

Lions

QB Jared Goff may have reason to be worried this week considering the state of the offensive line. C Graham Glasgow (knee) and TE Brock Wright (neck) have been ruled out while T Taylor Decker (shoulder), T Penei Sewell (knee) and G Tate Ratledge (knee), all starters, have questionable designations and haven’t logged a full practice all week. Backup OL Miles Frazier is also questionable, but did practice all week. Starting WR Kalif Raymond has been ruled out with an ankle injury and WR Isaac TeSlaa is questionable (hand) so Amon Ra St Brown may see an increased target share along with an emphasis on a run game that has been so successful this year with RB Jahmyr Gibbs who’s nearing 1000 yards rushing on the season. Defensively, S Kerby Joseph will not play due to a knee injury, taking the team leader in interceptions out of play.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys host the Kansas City Chiefs in one of the most anticipated Thanksgiving matchups in years — a collision between past dynasty and present dynasty, between two of the NFL’s most polarizing brands, and between two teams desperately clawing for playoff positioning. With Patrick Mahomes returning home to Texas, stars all over the field, and both squads coming off historic comeback victories, this is pure holiday theater.

Kansas City

The Chiefs enter Thanksgiving at 6-5, riding the emotional high of the largest fourth-quarter comeback of Patrick Mahomes’ career. But with decades-long streaks on the line, 10 straight playoff berths, seven consecutive AFC title games, and back-to-back Super Bowl wins, Kansas City is playing with more at stake than any team in the league.

Mahomes returns to AT&T Stadium for the first NFL start of his career there, just 90 minutes from where he grew up in Tyler. In three college shootouts at the stadium, he averaged over 500 passing yards and five touchdowns, and the Chiefs would love even a fraction of that production against a rejuvenated Dallas defense.

Travis Kelce,  playing in his first-ever Thanksgiving game, leads Kansas City in receiving and is on pace to become the oldest tight end in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s biggest challenge will be slowing a suddenly explosive Cowboys passing attack featuring CeeDee Lamb and the breakout force of George Pickens. With the Chiefs favored and the season teetering, this is a massive prove-it moment for Andy Reid’s squad.

Dallas

Dallas is coming off a franchise-defining rally of its own, storming back from down 21 to stun the 8-2 Eagles and move to 5-5-1, keeping their postseason hopes very much alive. The story of the month for the Cowboys has been their midseason transformation, powered by Jerry Jones’ bold move to acquire Quinnen Williams, who has immediately reshaped the defensive front. In Dallas’ past two wins, the defense ranks among the league’s best in pressures and rushing yards allowed, suffocating both the Raiders and Eagles on the ground.

On offense, the Cowboys have become appointment viewing. George Pickens, one of the best offseason additions in the league, has erupted into a star with over 1,050 yards in 11 games, the most ever for a player through 11 contests in a Cowboys uniform. Paired with All-Pro CeeDee Lamb, Dallas presents a dual-threat nightmare that even Kansas City’s seasoned secondary will struggle to contain.

This game is more than spectacle for the Cowboys, it’s survival. A win at home against the defending champions would vault Dallas firmly back into NFC contention and give Dak Prescott another statement victory in a high-pressure environment.

Stats to know:

Chiefs:

- 5th in total offense / 2nd in passing offense (266.8 ypg) / 14th in rushing offense (118.3 ypg)

- 6th in total defense / 11th in passing defense (195.4 ypg) / 8th in rushing defense (97.6 ypg)

- 25.2 points per game / 18.3 points allowed per game

- 387.1 ypg / 300.4 yards allowed per game

- 5-5-1 ATS / 1-4 SU on road / 1-3 ATS on road

- 3-2 ATS after a win

- 4-4-1 ATS as favorite / 1-3 ATS as road favorite

- Since 2000, road favorites are 22-11 ATS on Thanksgiving

- Since 2005, road favorites are 24-1 SU

- Chiefs are 5-4 SU with Andy Reid as head coach on Thanksgiving

- Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 on Thanksgiving

- Only other time the Chiefs played the Cowboys on Thanksgiving (1995), Cowboys won 24-12

Cowboys:

- 1st in total offense / 1st in passing offense (266.8 ypg) / 12th in rushing offense (120.5 ypg)

- 29th in total defense / 30th in passing defense (252.3 ypg) / 22nd in rushing defense (125.2 ypg)

- 29.1 ppg / 28.5 points allowed per game

- 395.2 ypg / 395.5 yards allowed per game

- 6-5 ATS / 3-1-1 SU at home / 3-2 ATS at home

- 2-0 ATS as home underdog / 4-1 ATS as underdog

- Cowboys are 34-22-1 all time on Thanksgiving

- Cowboys are 2-11 ATS on Turkey Day since 2011 / 6-12 ATS since 2005

- Dak Prescott is 7-3 SU on Thanksgiving

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Chiefs -3.5 / Total O/U 52.5 / Cowboys ML +154

Best bets:

  1. Cowboys +3.5

- Although the Cowboys are underdogs and have an impressive 7-3 SU on Thanksgiving in the past 10 seasons, the Chiefs will be covering the spread in Dallas on Thanksgiving afternoon. The numbers don’t lie and it seems like Vegas believes the Chiefs have found a stride after nearly being eliminated from playoff contention in Week 12. The Chiefs squeaked by the Colts last week and I think they will do so again with the Cowboys which is why I'm taking the home team and the points. While Dak has been solid on Turkey Day, the road favorites record against the spread is hard to ignore but I feel like the Cowboys offense will keep pace with Mahomes and the additions that the Cowboys made on defense will also help Dallas stay close in this game.

  1. George Pickens over 5.5 receptions (-102)

- Since being traded from the Steelers to the Cowboys this offseason, George Pickens has been the best addition to the Cowboys offense since drafting CeeDee Lamb. Pickens has played the best football of his young career and continues to torture any defensive back that covers him. Pickens has cleared this line in four straight games and he will need to again if the Cowboys are going to win on Thursday. The Chiefs will be forced to put McDuffie on Lamb, which in turn then leaves a less applicable cornerback on Pickens. This pick is kind of trendy but I will ride the hot hand with Pickens until he proves me

otherwise.

Injuries

Dallas

The Cowboys can be thankful that their long weekly injury report isn’t leading to too many players on the sidelines. The only player from the report ruled out is tackle Tyler Guyton, who sustained a high ankle sprain last week against the Eagles. Expect Nate Thomas to step into the right tackle position. CB Caelen Carson is questionable with a hamstring injury, which has high potential to limit his effectiveness covering the Chief’s explosive offensive talent.

Kansas City

Despite the week’s injury report including star QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs fans can give thanks that he participated fully in all practices and has no designation going into the game. Additional good news is that RB Isiah Pacheco will return this week after being sidelined for the past 3 games with a knee injury. On the downside, it may not be the easiest game since ProBowl G Trey Smith has been ruled out with an ankle injury.

Bengals vs. Ravens

The Thanksgiving slate wraps up with an AFC North showdown as the Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals under the lights. These teams enter the night heading in completely opposite directions: Baltimore has surged into a tie atop the division thanks to a five-game win streak, while Cincinnati sits at the bottom, though reinforcements have arrived just in time. With Joe Burrow returning from a toe injury and Ja’Marr Chase back from suspension, the Bengals suddenly look far more dangerous than their record suggests. Meanwhile, the Ravens aim to maintain their grip on first place and strengthen their playoff positioning in front of a primetime home crowd.

Cincinnati

Suddenly, the Bengals’ offense looks much more like the one Cincinnati fans recognized entering the year. Joe Burrow returns to the lineup after recovering from a toe injury, and Ja’Marr Chase is back from suspension, giving the Bengals their Pro Bowl duo just in time for a divisional test they must have to stay within striking distance of the playoff picture.

Despite their record, Cincinnati showed real fight last week, hanging within one score of the Patriots and covering a 7.5-point line behind backup quarterback play. Now, with Burrow back under center, they present a far more credible challenge to a Baltimore team that has cooled off offensively. The Ravens have scored just 23 points in back-to-back weeks against struggling defenses,  an encouraging sign for a Bengals team looking to keep the game tight and give Burrow opportunities to attack late.

The loss of Tee Higgins hurts, but Cincinnati still has enough firepower to stress Baltimore’s secondary. If Burrow settles in quickly and the defense can keep Jackson contained, the Bengals have a realistic path to covering the spread, and potentially stealing a Thanksgiving night upset.

Baltimore

After a rocky 1–5 start and a stretch where Lamar Jackson’s health was a constant concern, the Ravens have completely flipped their season. Five straight wins have pushed them to the top of the AFC North, and now they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Pittsburgh as they look to keep control of the division.

Baltimore’s surge has been powered by a defense playing at a dominant level. Since the embarrassing 44–10 loss to the Texans in early October, no opponent has topped 20 points against the Ravens, regardless of matchup or venue. With Tee Higgins ruled out and Joe Burrow shaking off rust after weeks away, Baltimore’s defense has a clear opportunity to dictate terms again.

Offensively, Lamar Jackson’s improved health, after practicing fully on Tuesday,  gives Baltimore a steadier foundation than they had earlier in the season. The Ravens haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard the past two weeks, but they’ve taken care of the ball and leaned on their elite defense to close out games. At home, on a holiday stage, with momentum on their side, Baltimore comes in as a rightful favorite and a team built to control the script.

Stats to know:

Bengals:

- 23rd in total offense / 15th in passing offense (222.2 ypg) / 30th in rushing offense (84.9 ypg)

- 32nd in total defense / 32nd in passing defense (259.8 ypg) / 31st in rushing defense (156 ypg)

- 22.5 ppg / 32.7 points allowed per game

-320.9 ypg / 423.7 yards allowed per game

-4-7 ATS / 1-4 on road SU / 1-4 ATS on road

- 3-4 ATS after a loss / 3-5 ATS as an underdog / 1-3 ATS as road team underdog

- Bengals are on a 4-game losing streak

- 1-2 ATS in divisional games

- Bengals are 0-1 all time on Thanksgiving

Ravens:

- 21st in total offense / 29th in passing offense (176.6 ypg) / 6th in rushing offense (138 ypg)

- 24th in total defense / 24th in passing defense (230 ypg) / 20th in rushing defense (117.5)

-25 ppg / 23.7 points allowed per game

- 333.6 ypg / 359.1 yards allowed per game

- 4-7 ATS / 3-3 SU at home / 2-4 ATS at home

- 1-1 ATS in divisional games / 2-3 ATS after a win

- 4-5 ATS as favorite / 2-3 ATS as home favorite

- Ravens are 32-26 all-time vs Bengals

- Ravens on a 5-game win streak

- Lamar Jackson is 5-1 in head-to-head matchups vs Joe Burrow

- Lamar Jackson is 1-0 SU on Thanksgiving

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Ravens -7 / Total O/U 51.5 / Bengals ML + 295

Best bets:

  1. Ravens -7

- Although this spread is quite large for a primetime divisional game, I believe Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will take care of business at home against a Bengals team that has the worst defense in the NFL. Getting Joe Burrow back for the Bengals is huge but their season is too far gone and Burrow will have some rust after not playing the majority of the season. Lamar Jackson always performs under the lights and the Ravens are the hottest team in the NFL even though their record ATS is not good. I believe in Jackson and the Ravens on primetime of Turkey Day and I honestly believe they’ll win by ten or more with how terrible the Bengals defense is.

  1. Joe Burrow to throw an interception (-115)

- I am not even remotely surprised that this line is near even money given the amount of time Burrow has missed as well as how bad the Bengals’ offensive line is. Burrow is a great QB, but rust as well as lack of protection will be tough for Burrow and he will end up playing from behind which will make him force passes. The Ravens have a decent secondary which adds fuel to the fire but overall Burrow is going to be fighting for his life at the Bank, which will result in turnovers.

Injuries

Bengals

Happy Thanksgiving Bengals fans, star QB Joe Burrows is making his much anticipated return following a severe case of turf toe that required surgery. Unfortunately Burrows will be without WR Tee Higgins as a target as Higgins continues to recover from a concussion sustained in week 12 against the Patriots. The defensive line may lack some pass rushing explosiveness as DE Trey Hendrickson will not play with a hip/pelvis injury and fellow DE Cam Sample is questionable with an ankle injury.

Ravens

Back up RB Justice Hill has been ruled out for the TNF tilt against the Bengals with a neck injury, however this may not slow the Ravens’ offense as the run game is clearly dominated by Derrick Henry. QB Lamar Jackson caught the toe injury bug, but goes into the game with no injury designation. Defensively, there aren’t many surprises on the injury front for the Ravens. The primary issue is the sheer number of players on IR, including 4 linebackers, a defensive end and a cornerback which really eats into the Ravens’ depth.

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